Stop Bidding P50
The optimal day-ahead bid is almost never your median forecast. It is a quantile chosen by the expected DA-RT spread, your plant's forecast error, and the asymmetric cost of settling your misses in real time. We compute it for you, every hour of every day.
What We Do
Strategy, architecture, shipping, and continuous improvement. Pick what you need, or let us take it end to end.
Day-Ahead Bid Optimization
Our autobidder solves the renewable bidding problem the way it is actually structured: commit the right quantile of your production forecast, chosen by the expected DA-RT spread and the asymmetry of settlement outcomes, corrected for the correlation between your forecast error and the market. Hourly bids before the day-ahead close, with a full audit trail of why each bid is what it is.
Probabilistic Production Forecasting
A single-point forecast cannot price the risk of missing it. We produce calibrated quantile forecasts of your plant's available production for every hour, trained on forecast weather rather than measured weather, so the model learns the errors your bids actually face. Calibration is verified continuously: when we say P10, actuals fall below it ten percent of the time.
Nodal Spread & Congestion Intelligence
Your settlement happens at your node, not at SP15. We model the DA-RT spread where you settle: the system-wide component driven by the solar ramp, scarcity, and regime, plus the nodal congestion component driven by transmission constraints and outages. CAISO-native from day one, built on a point-in-time data archive that cannot be bought retroactively.
Advisory & Bid Audits
Not ready for an autobidder? We start with an audit: an economic backtest of your historical bids against an optimized strategy, at your nodes, under out-of-sample, point-in-time discipline. You see exactly what your current bidding leaves in the spread before you commit to anything. We also advise on market entry, hedging structure, and resource adequacy obligations.
How It Works
A daily loop from weather data to settled bids, with honest measurement at every step.
Forecast
Every morning we build a calibrated quantile forecast of your plant's available production for each hour of the next day, from ensemble weather models, your SCADA history, and curtailment records.
Price the Spread
We forecast the conditional distribution of the DA-RT spread at your settlement node: the system regime (mild, tight, scarce), the solar ramp, and the nodal congestion picture from transmission constraints and outages.
Optimize the Bid
The optimizer selects the production quantile to commit for each hour, balancing the spread outlook, your forecast uncertainty, and the correlation between them. Independent risk and compliance checks validate every bid before it goes out.
Settle & Learn
After settlement, every bid is attributed: what the forecast said, what the market did, what the bid earned versus a naive baseline. Recalibration is continuous, and you see the same numbers we do.
Talk to Us
Tell us about your assets and how you bid today. We'll get back to you within one business day.